Green Bay’s Population to Shrink? Not So Fast!

The recent draft of the Go Big Green Bay 2050 Comprehensive Plan seems to indicate that Green Bay’s population may decrease in the next twenty-five years. Yet, what goes into forecasting this type of figure? Here are some insights into what makes a projection plausible.

Forecasting the population of a city like Green Bay isn’t about predicting one fixed number — it’s about understanding the forces that will shape who lives, works, and raises families here. City planners, businesses, and community leaders need these projections to guide investments in housing, schools, healthcare, and infrastructure. Here are the key methods — and emerging signals — that can help us anticipate what Green Bay might look like in 2040.

1. The Cohort-Component Method The backbone of population forecasting is the cohort-component method, which projects how many people will be in each age group in the future. For Green Bay, this means:

• Tracking births, as Wisconsin has seen declining fertility rates.

• Estimating deaths, with an aging Baby Boomer population that will reshape the region’s age structure.

•  Monitoring migration, which may be the biggest wildcard — will youngprofessionals move here for affordable housing, or will they leave for bigger metros?

2. Trend Extrapolation Looking at past patterns can provide clues. Green Bay’s steady but modest growth could be extended forward using census data and housing permits. But trend extrapolation alone may miss major shifts, like the impact of remote work allowing professionals to live in smaller cities, or economic downturns that push people away.

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